Bob Holsworth at St. Paul's

A couple of years ago, I heard Bob Holsworth speak at a Virginia Government Communicators conference and enjoyed it, so I rolled out for his Eyes on Richmond gig at St. Paul's Episcopal today. I knew I wasn't late when I found myself walking up the sidewalk right behind him. He was alone, which oddly surprised me, like political analysts should travel with entourages or be flanked with security and sycophants like the mayor?

Some of what he said was obvious -- like Obama brought out voters who don't usually go to the polls, the young, black, and Hispanic -- which turned Bush Red states in the Southwest blue, as well as Virginia. And then he'd pull some data out of the hat, which made me go whoa, he's doing this without notes.

So here's my notes.

Although nearly the entire full house raised their hand when asked if they'd rather see a four-week campaign for President, Holsworth said the way we do it now is just right. Limited campaign periods favor established people. It takes a long campaign to allow a new face to emerge and fight enough battles to earn the title.

Bush's approval rating now is lower than Nixon's was at the height of Watergate, and is matched only by Truman, who was later redeemed by history. Bush is hoping for such a redemption.

Bush pretty much elected Obama. It was too much of an uphill battle for McCain. Suspending his campaign to support the Wall Street bail-out was a huge political blunder. The 18-29 age group went 2-1 for Obama. "A party that's losing the next generation by 2-1 has to be very concerned," he said of the Republicans.

We tend to watch the TV network that supports our own views. Then he made a joke about Alan Colmes who is "paid to lose every night" opposite Sean Hannity on Fox News. (Actually, Colmes has a radio show I listen to every evening on XM Radio where he wins every night.)

Amazing fact: When Holsworth asked us to raise our hand if we read the newspaper every single day, the entire room, except me, raised their hand. But this was a decidedly old crowd. (When I pass by a mirror, I am always startled by the old woman who looks back. Who is she?) Young people, Holsworth said, are getting their news from The Daily Show, SNL and Letterman. (Letterman is old, I hate to tell you.) The Republican party needs to "develop conservative comedians."

What happened in Virginia was Northern Virginia. It has gone heavily Democrat with minorities, Hispanics, and post graduates working in high tech fields. Hanover County may be the last bastion of Republicanism in the state. (And where I first met Mark Warner in person, at a small gathering of the few Democrats in the county in someone's backyard. He gave a great speech, and I've voted for him ever since.)

Albemarle County, another Republican stronghold surrounding Democratic Charlottesville, is in the throes of high unemployment, which is how Virgil Goode's seat fell into jeopardy.

In the mayoral race, Grey dropped the ball with his enthusiasm-free campaign despite having a boatload of money, whereas Jones had all the traditional Democrat endorsements, and the good luck to be on a ticket where Obama was attracting new voters to pull the lever for the Democrats.

Obama proved it's possible to run a winning campaign on donations from small contributors, free of fat-cat money, which opens the door for anyone with an attractive platform and a good website. He was a "cool hand, smart guy" who never took the bait during debates and remained above the fray. While McCain was taking Virginia for granted until too late, Obama opened 50 campaign offices and inundated the airwaves with ads, even in the expensive D.C. market where he ran 1,342 ads versus McCain's 80.

One question from the audience was why couldn't the Republicans "swiftboat" Obama like they had Kerry? Because Kerry opened himself to attack, according to Holsworth, making a fatal mistake at his convention by "reporting for duty" and emphasizing his Vietnam service, without balancing it with his anti-war activities. "He only told half his story when he had a problematic second half." (I'm not sure talking about his anti-war activities would have silenced the swiftboaters, but you gotta love the new word.)